DTN Midday Livestock Comments          07/14 11:40

   Traders Are Skeptical at the Week's Start

   Following last week's aggressive push in the cattle complex, traders are 
skeptical to overly support the cattle contracts early this week.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock contracts are trading fully lower into Monday's noon hour as 
traders are still trying to determine which way the market should trade this 
week. Following the aggressive rally seen late last week in the cattle complex, 
it's hard for traders to continue to push the contracts higher without first 
seeing what's going to surface fundamentally this week. July corn is up 9 3/4 
cents per bushel and July soybean meal is unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial 
Average is up 46.78 points and NASDAQ is up 44.92 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   After aggressively running to new contract highs on Friday, the live cattle 
complex is walking back some of the recent position it has concurred as traders 
aren't as bullish at the start of this week. August live cattle are down $2.25 
at $219.95, October live cattle are down $2.25 at $217.45 and December live 
cattle are down $1.70 at $217.87. Some external pressures, such as the high 
tariffs threated on Russia if a peace deal isn't met within 50 days could be 
unsettling to traders, but more than anything, it seems as though traders are 
still catching their breath from last week's whirlwind-like trade and are 
trying to decipher what to do with the market now.

   Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded at $380, which is $10.00 higher 
than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at $228 
to $230, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted 
average.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.58 ($378.06) and select down 
$0.58 ($365.91) with a movement of 54 loads (28.99 loads of choice, 11.27 loads 
of select, 6.16 loads of trim and 7.27 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex is feeling the same pressure that's affecting the 
live cattle complex, but only in a more aggressive form as most of its 
contracts are trading $4.00 to $5.00 lower. August feeders are down $5.42 at 
$319.90, September feeders are down $5.30 at $320.10 and October feeders are 
down $5.10 at $318.10. Although the board is trading sharply lower, it's likely 
that sales in the countryside will be largely unphased as supplies are limited 
enough that buyers have to remain aggressive if they want to fulfill their 
orders.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is seeing some of the same skepticism from traders that 
the cattle complex is, but not near as dramatically, as most of its contracts 
are trading just $1.00 to $2.00 lower. August lean hogs are down $1.12 at 
$103.55, October lean hogs are down $2.27 at $88.35 and December lean hogs are 
down $2.30 at $79.97. What is encouraging to see this morning in the lean hog 
complex, however, is the fact that pork cutout values are higher, which is 
mainly because of the belly's $9.06 jump, but the picnic, rib and ham are all 
up over $2.00 as well.

   Hog prices are unavailable on this Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because 
of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 555 head have traded and that 
the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $111.48. The projected lean 
hog index for 7/11/2025 is up $0.15 at $107.25, and the actual index for 
7/10/2025 is down $0.04 at $107.10. Hog prices are unavailable because of 
confidentiality. Pork cutouts total 163.42 loads with 150.39 loads of pork cuts 
and 13.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.73, $115.20.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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